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| | 02/17/2005
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| | Blather and Dreck, by Ron May
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| | Blather and Dreck, by Ron May
* Many small businesses use the services of Paychex which is located at 150 S. Wacker. They handle the payroll, make the tax payments and assume liability for doing it right. I met Debra Sutow from Paychex in the Monadnock building on Friday when I was headed to pay a visit to Steve Lundin. He is on the fifth floor but is moving out and headed for Wacker and Michigan in April. His staffers Jessica and Julie were doing all the work while Lundin pontificates about how brilliant he is. Let me tell ya, I could not make it up. The characters in this town from Sir Barry the Moltz to the breezy Jack Kennedy-esque Steve Lundin (if he does say so himself) could easily make for a great satire. Speaking of Sir Barry, he was seen, turtle neck clad, at the East Bank Club recently eating lunch. Gee, I did not know he could afford the price of admission. I guess he must have been a guest.
You know, Lundin has a James Bond poster, a gun, all kinds of high tech equipment --- most of it not even hooked up --- and lots of black and silver stuff in his office. He has a RAZR, by the way. Lundin and his buddy Ellis Booker are very big on the latest gadget. Anyway, he uses Paychex and so does John Kennedy who is on the eighth floor at the Monadnock (Kennedy runs the Camp Monadnock seminars). Lundin says that Paychex is very expensive though.
I do believe that Lundin is making money though. It is hard to tell with these legends in their own minds. You know, there is a lot of idle talk in this town. If I had a dollar for every tall tale.... I heard recently that one prominent person in our tech community traded on his relationship with J. B. Pritzker by telling other people that he could get Pritzker to donate money. Even if that were true, it strikes me as quite tacky to do that, especially for one's own advancement.
Lundin has eight or ten clients listed on the white board in his office and while I was there, Julie and Jessica were writing several press releases. One was for some divorce lawyer whom Lundin says he is rebranding as a divorce handicapper and they were sending out a release quoting her on the likelihood of Donald Trump's conjugal success. The argument that Lundin's client is making is that the probability of a successful marriage drops dramatically with each successive marriage. Sure beats sauer kraut.
I have never understood how people get paid to come up with such stuff. Do you know how Lundin got the sauer kraut account? Well, in the meeting with the guy, he suggested the Kraut-ini which became the K'tini. The origin of the idea was that people had started putting blue cheese in olives years ago and it caught on. Lundin figured that something a little vinegary or salty would liven up a martini and since I don't drink, I don't quite know what taste sensation he's talking about. But the sauer kraut idea just came to him, he told me. I balled him out for giving away his idea in the preliminary pitch meeting without any contract. He said that the guy had already talked to four or five big PR firms and he could just tell that they would work well together. He said that sometimes you have to take risks. It was a matter of gut feel.
I think it is possible that Lundin is billing about $30K a month and that ain't bad for a small operation. He pays those women peanuts ($15 an hour, I believe) and he has a total of three of them now. Let's say that he continues along this projectory for the next twelve to eighteen months and builds up his annual billings to $800K. He may be able to sell the firm for 3x or possibly more.
Actually, he told me that his payroll is now $16K a month, including his own salary and each account manager handles three accounts. Lundin meets with each Account Manager for about thirty minutes a day, so he spends an hour and a half on account management daily.
But getting back to my main point: PR is such a bogus profession. Basically, it is getting paid to be cutsie about boring subjects and do the thinking for the reporters who should be thinking for themselves. Lundin doesn't see it as cutsie, but as innovative. I see it as a lot of hokum. Take the divorce lawyer example. Lundin told his assistant to be sure to send it to Fox and CNN because they might eat it up. The press release was nothing more than an opinion on divorce handicapping from his client. In other words, the whole thing is manufactured just so that some news producer can squeeze it into a Valentine's Day story, and it has the Trump name to get attention. It is too cheap and easy.
People actually get paid to do this?
* Now, as a small firm, Lundin probably pulls more off-the-wall stuff than say a Mike Nikolich or a Howard Solomon might try. But still, what is all of this about? Then there is Dever, another legend in his own mind, and one who lives off of Barbie Adler. Dever strikes again, or so he tells me, in Monday's Tribune with an article about how the bloom is off the rose for online dating service companies. JDate has cancelled its planned IPO, Dever says. I checked on that and I think Mr. D has that one wrong. JDate is owned by a firm that went public four years ago. Match.com has laid off people. No wonder. Katherine Gehl never dated any of the one thousand guys who responded to her solicitations on one of the sites. She did not like the bikers or the I-bankers. But she may be considering a continuation of the gene pool using high tech methods. You know, I am back Katherine. It was only a matter of time before I let that little bomb drop and I have been sitting on it for six months. By the way, for a short time, Dever was ambulance chasing. He had Superior Ambulance as a client and was actually paid to make sure that a Superior Ambulance was in the background when local news cameras were at a hospital. And he got paid for this?
Man it feels good to be back on a roll. This is being written on Saturday night, by the way, about 10:30pm and Saturday Night Live has just come on the tube.
* And then we come to the strange case of Brian Connolly who exited the PR business when Howard Solomon showed him the door in May of 2001, and he has not returned since. I know Connolly well enough to know that he despises what Lundin and Dever and company do. He would not condescend to this kind of work just to pay the rent.
And speaking of paying the rent, Connolly almost got kicked out of his condo, but his significant other, Vikki, saved the day by getting him to back off. Connolly got himself elected to the board of the condo and started raising he**, but the corrupt powers-that-be came down on him. Had Vikki not told Connolly that enough was enough, he might be on the street right now.
But Connolly is good for some things. He can play Diplomacy, a great game that I played when I was a kid for those of you who have never heard of it. Phil Fry who lives in Connolly's building at 111 East Chestnut (the same building is occupied by Jane Byrne and Jack Ryan --- what an odd couple!) held a Diplomacy fest not about a year ago and people even flew in for the occasion. Phil is an interesting guy. He is from Ohio, but went to Harvard and as you know, you can always tell a Harvard man, but you can't tell him much.
Connolly is now "busy" with his blog intentions. He decided initially on the name "The Bullfighter" and that blog can be found at www.thebullfighter.com. He had the template finished weeks ago. Then he wanted to write a column for the blog --- imagine that?! Writing an opinion piece for your own blog. That's so middle class in Connolly's view who fashions himself an idle aristocrat. Connolly would never want to do "work" and get caught doing it. He would rather get Tom Wolfe to do it for him. Brian won't stoop to do actual work. He will contemplate the nature of the universe before lifting a finger to do anything, however.
No, on a more serious note, the affliction Connolly suffers from, aside from an extreme case of perfectionism, is rather common in the PR business that he hails from. These people care mostly about form, not substance. They don't really have any strong opinions or issues so they worry about how they will express themselves. This is a variation on the old line that if everything is important, then nothing is important. Hence, in Connolly's case, nothing ever gets done.
Now, he has decided that "The Bullfighter" is too intense and too serious. He wants more levity so he is thinking of the name BlogOblique or maybe Utzy Information. Meanwhile, he has not written one word of substance. Do you see my point about PR? Connolly would sit and ponder what form he wants this thing to take until the cows come home.
Connolly does raise existential naval gazing to an art form, and he does it very well. Read this piece of blather on bullfighting and the meaning of life from his blog that has not been activated yet, of course, with anything like content. It is a table very elegantly set, just no food or people to eat it.
Here is a portion of Connolly's blog introduction:
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That said, the real question then becomes, "how does one make sense?" Certainly, the opposite of that is replete. From monumental to mundane, be it business, politics, culture or sports? there isn't a day that goes by that we are driven to express "pahlease," "arrrrgh," "for crying out loud," or a deeply guttural "Mother of God!!"
And there seems little in the way of choice as to how to respond... practically. Seems one has five basic options: Sell out, kill yourself, drink heavily, take to bed or join in the choir of those howling at the moon. It doesn't get more depressing. Truth is it does. When you get right down to it, each of these options sadly insult one's dignity.
So to sum up, you're pretty much damned if you do and damned if you don't. Pretty much life comes down to a lot of waiting.
BUT THAT'S IT! The fundamental elements of our current dilemma have always been there: The haves and have nots, power and control, preachers, snakes and statutory teachers, all truth lies and various video tape? the setting and characters are of course new but the underlying story is time immemorial. And the most appropriate response has always been some feeble attempt at art. For the BIG questions, answers are always seen clearer through that lens.
Now for the twist. Here we propose an art form particularly controversial and oddly apropos: The Bullfight.
It's complete. Even its evolution sheds light. From it's early origins as a brute pastime for the knights, Moors and Christians it soon evolved into "fiesta brava." Then from circus to spectacle, sport to high art, and art finally to stuff of myth and legend. It has all the timeless elements: romance, drama, finesse, raw power? most of all life and death.
Better said in the words of Mario Carrión, "This art form is based on the fact that instead of allowing the bull a chance to take command, the matador's dexterity makes him the creator and master of the relationship. In theory, this artistic event is simple, the difficulty lies in carrying out the task. The bull, by his very nature, attacks everything that moves; the man, unrelenting, standing tall, exhibiting elegance and poise, should move the cape in such a way that the bull will pursue it without ever catching it, and at the same time, in order to enhance the feeling of danger, he should direct the trajectory of the attacking animal as close to his body as he dares. Not so close, however, that in order to avoid being injured or killed, he should have to briskly step aside, because by doing so he will disturb the fluidity of the movement. Bottom line: Anyone who has courage can bullfight if he knows the technique. The challenge lies in being able to bullfight? as if the bulls were made of glass and one were careful not to break them."
So come with us. Enter la plaza de toros.
Toro! Toro!
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Ron May here again. I am including the article from the Chicago Tribune on the decline of on-line dating. I think that the article misses the point. Online dating is in a different category from what Barbie Adler does. It is the difference between a high level executive search firm and an employment agency.
chicagotribune.com >> Technology
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TRENDS: ONLINE DATING LOSES STEAM
Bloom falls off the rose for Internet matchups
Consumers' willingness to pay for online personal ads appears to have peaked, and traditional dating services are enjoying new growth
By Shia Kapos
Special to the Tribune
Published February 14, 2005
Mike Barnhill hoped the Internet could do for his love life what it does for the business world--connect parties quickly and efficiently.
The managing director of a Chicago freight management logistics firm knew the soul mate he was looking for was a smart, outgoing woman who liked the outdoors. And he figured she was a few clicks away on his keyboard.
He was right.
The 43-year-old Nebraska native was connected with dozens of women who fit the bill.
"There were some really beautiful women who said they liked to be outdoors and active," said Barnhill.
But after a few dates he felt cheated.
"It's quality versus quantity. Not everyone looks the way they do in those pictures. And they aren't interested in everything they say on their profile," Barnhill said.
Nationwide, online daters may be feeling the same way.
Finding love by way of the Internet appears to have peaked, according to industry reports, which show revenue growth at Internet-based dating services has flattened.
Meanwhile, old-fashioned dating companies--which have offices and human matchmakers--say they are reaping the benefits.
"The newness has worn off," said Peter Zollman, founder of Classified Intelligence, which studies classified advertising.
"I don't think it's falling off. But there are indications that it's temporarily--and maybe definitely--reached a plateau," Zollman said.
According to the Online Publishers Association and ComScore Networks, consumer spending on online personal ads is declining.
Combined research by the two groups shows quarterly consumer spending on online personal ads has been in decline since peaking at $118 million in the third quarter of 2003, falling to $113.6 million in the second quarter of 2004, the latest period covered in the report. Year-over-year growth dropped to 4 percent in the second quarter of 2004 from 60 percent a year earlier.
It doesn't mean the industry isn't making money, analysts say.
Online ads pulled in $514 million in 2004 and are projected to grow to $843 million by 2008, according to a 2004 study of the industry by Tampa-based Marketdata Enterprises Inc. By comparison, offline services, which include franchises, independent matchmakers, and print and radio ads, pulled in $556 million and are projected to expand to $617 million.
"The growth is slowing down but the industry isn't shrinking," said Nate Elliott, an analyst at Jupiter Research in New York. "We've just hit critical mass."
In projections similar to Marketdata's, Elliott says consumers are expected to spend $551 million on online personal ads in 2006, compared to $516 million forecast for 2005, and $473 million and $396 million for 2004 and 2003, respectively.
Online experts say there are a few reasons for the slowdown.
"Growth rates of Internet use in general have slowed," said Zollman. "Not the actual use, but how fast it's growing. It's not as fresh and new and perhaps not as exciting as it was a few years ago. It used to be the hot, cool thing."
But there's another factor--Craigslist.
Craigslist.org, started about 10 years ago by San Francisco software engineer Craig Newmark, is free to users. The Web page offers everything from car ads to pet walkers. And when it comes to personals, there's plenty to choose from, whether it's "strictly platonic" or a "casual encounter."
"It's a very powerful community. Why pay $20 for something if you can get it for free," Zollman said.
Still, Craigslist has the same problem that other Internet dating services have, according to some former online daters--that is, potential soul mates aren't screened.
"You just don't know if they are who they say they are," said Shawna Roongsang, a Chicago-area resident who compares meeting men on the Internet to hooking up with someone at a bar.
"I tried online, but I just didn't feel it was a safe way to meet people," said the 35-year-old, who has since turned to Selective Search, a more traditional dating company. "I think the best way to meet someone is through a mutual friend. This kind of bridges that gap."
Checking profile facts
Like most dating companies, Selective Search puts clients through a vigorous vetting process.
"We do background checks, we have a sit-down interview that lasts two hours, we talk about their childhood, values, lifestyle preferences and everything from religion to politics," said Barbie Adler, CEO of Chicago-based Selective Search, who uses the same techniques she used working in the executive search industry to match up clients.
"Nowadays you outsource for everything--for work on your house, for a personal shopper or a personal trainer," said Adler, adding that it follows that people would outsource their love lives. "We're seeing more and more people come to us who have tried online circles and are fed up. They are a petri dish for the dating industry."
Chicago-based It's Just Lunch, which also interviews candidates one-on-one before setting them up for a lunch date, has seen a surprising 21 percent increase in business in the past year, according to director P.J. Osgood.
"That's huge for an established office," she said of the 14-year-old company. She said many of the company's newest clients tried online dating but didn't have the time to make it work.
"All they have to do is show up for lunch. They've got to eat anyway, so it's a good use of their time," said Osgood.
But for real ease in dating, online companies say they are still the best way to go.
"You can initiate an e-mail, you can start a dialogue and then talk on the phone without identities revealed, and you can do it all in your PJs," says Kristin Kelly, senior director of public relations for Match.com, one of the largest online dating sites. "You have complete control. It's very empowering."
Kelly scoffs at any study that shows online dating may be slipping, saying the online market, like the Internet, is evolving and that there is "tremendous untapped growth" in the online dating world. And she points to a recent survey by WeddingChannel.com, which found that 12 percent of couples visiting the site had met online.
"Right now, you've got 80 million singles over the age of 18 in the United States, and only 4 to 6 million are paying to use an online-relationship site. There's tremendous opportunity there," she said, adding that Match.com just posted one of its most successful Januaries in the company's 10-year history.
As for critics who say too many people lie about their age, weight or marriage status online, Kelly says it's a fact of life.
"It's hard to check for marriage licenses," even for old-fashioned companies, because not every state allows access to them, Kelly said.
"There are dishonorable people wherever you go. Unfortunately, the same people who lie online are also taking off their wedding rings at a bar," she said.
"We know the process of finding love is difficult and complicated. No matchmaker, no mother, no friend can predict chemistry. But if we can help you find people most compatible with you, then your chances of chemistry when you meet are much greater," she said.
For proof, she sends folks to the new Success.Match.com, which was launched last week and details successful stories of love from Match.com members.
"Using the Internet to help search for love is here to stay," Kelly said.
And it's growing in other directions too.
While Match.com and other online companies allow clients to look for people with like interests, hundreds of smaller, specialized sites are also seeing success--from Agapeonline.com for Greek singles (agape means love) to dating sites for Jewish, Muslim, gay and elderly singles.
Even Paul Falzone, of Boston-based Together Dating, says it is due, in part, to the Internet that his traditional dating company has seen increased success.
Old-style firms cut costs
It's not just that folks may get frustrated with online dating, but the old-fashioned firms are seeing costs diminish because they're advertising, ironically, on the Internet, he said.
"We're buying clicks on Google and MSN and by doing so our lead cost is maybe $50 as opposed to $300 for direct mail," said Falzone. "It's one of the most exciting times in the industry."
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